We started GeneUse in 2021. To test the tool, we limited the system and we allowed it to see until 2017. Then, we compared the 2019/2020 results to what the tool predicted. The remarkable thing was that stallions that were starting to make headlines in those seasons were showing many good reports. So, our system was predicting its future even though it was just the past. The case that brought our attention was No Nay Never and with what happened in 2021 and 2022, we just got a confirmation. It is no surprise that in our 2021 selection, we included some horses by him, and one was Meditate. Not cheap, but No Nay Never was already hot at the moment. We also included some horses from first-crop sires, like Dubai Mile, a Roaring Lion colt, and Aloa, a filly from the first crop by Cracksman. The three have become already group winners. Out of 84 recommendations, two won G1s races (including the Breeders), another one a listed race, and a G2 and some days ago another filly won a listed race with a record of three victories out of three races. Four more are listed and group placed. From that list, at least 16 have already passed 90 in timeform even though most of them have barely run once. 31 of them have passed 80, which is 43% at barely 2. (only 71 have run). So, numbers promise to become interesting.
But the interesting thing is the possibility of identifying potential stallions before they get the chance to be proven, or sometimes, see when there was no luck and there is untapped potential. We heard something from an industry professional that we believe portrays how this industry works: “the best season for a stallion is the first one; then, even though the best mares go to the successful stallions, things get worse”. Somehow this professional could not see what that means: if the “best” mares do not make it better, it means either the mares chosen are not the right ones or that the first crop was just a statistical anomaly. This is not a minor issue, and this is seen all around the industry. This gives opportunities to anyone paying attention and using tools and data.
Then we chose randomly 50 mares from the Inglis Easter Yearling Sale 2022. This resulted in more than 4500 reports and we created a table with a score to simplify the comparison. The top 20 are Fastnet Rock, Saxon Warrior, Exceed and Excel, Street Boss, Casino Prince, Adelaide, Last Kingdom, Tassort, King’s Legacy, Smart Missile, Bull Point, Pride of Dubai, Calyx, Churchill, Flying Artie, Our Royal Egyptian, Astern, Your Song, Bivouac and Extreme Choice.
On top, we see two very successful horses: Exceed and Excel (AUS) and Fastnet Rock (AUS). This seems to be an obvious result, but we see this as an indication of consistency with long-term success and as a validation for the models. On the other hand, a new stallion like Saxon Warrior (JPN) is there, and considering his fee, he should be quite an opportunity. Time will confirm if he can compete with these Danehill heirs. Considering their fees, we believe that opportunities of value/money could be found among the following group: Casino Prince, Adelaide, Tassort, Last Kingdom, Bull Point, Our Royal Egyptian, and Your Song. It is very interesting to see two stallions by the same mare in this list: Tassort and Astern are by Essaouira, an Exceed and Excel mare, rich in Australian blood on her mare side that produced three group one winners with different stallions. Pedigree nerds can start doing their homework to try to find out what happened there. Both Stallions have fees at 11000 AUS and we would expect this to improve in the following seasons.
Extreme Choice is top 20 in the table. At the moment of writing the article he just reached an amazing percentage of SWs: 18.6%! He is 20th on the ranking, so, the models find him quite good, but not exactly amazing. If the models are right and this sample of mares ends up being representative, he should perform well, but somehow return to some more standard values. We will run 50 horses of his progeny (with 20% SWs as a proportion) and compare the results with the ones from this sample. The idea is to understand if somehow, he was matched very well increasing his chances and inflating his results.
Justify, a Scat Daddy very promoted in Australia did not come well. This is also a source for future small tests as Justify started pretty well in the US.
In the list, some remarkable new stallions like Saxon Warrior, Astern , Tassort could give a lot of value and the market might discover their potential later. At the same time, we indicate some more consolidated stallions that ended up having low fees, but with the right mares can compete one-to-one with the best stallions. You can download the report, for free in our catalog section!
In general, we confirmed here what we have seen many times before: there is a very poor correlation between price/stallion fees and real chances of finding good performers. It is undeniable that there is different potential among stallions, but the market tends to overpay for it. It is often normal to find people rushing after hot stallions and paying exponentially to barely find more chances (and that is taking into account that the most expensive stallions attract the best mares). In general, a good match between the mare and the stallion is as important as the stallion chosen.